The dog days of summer have officially arrived. I enjoy a beach chair more than anybody. But let’s be honest, the times where I am capable of turning off the world of sports are few and far between. Whether it’s the sun hitting my skin, the cold drink hitting my hand, or both, my mind inevitably drifts to what awaits us in the fall.
It’s only a matter of time before it’s college football season. Seventy-four days separate us from Week 0 (for those who are counting), and books are starting to release Week 1 odds as well. Futures are currently available at BetMGM, with the usual suspects (Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State) listed with the shortest odds to become the next national champion. Last season’s Heisman Trophy Winner, USC QB Caleb Williams, is the rightful odds on favorite (+500) to win the award again. The Big 12 has beefed up to 14 teams by gaining BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF as it prepares for Oklahoma and Texas to depart for the SEC in 2024. So while the new landscape of college football continues to spark more roster movement and conference realignment, there is certainly a lot to catch up on.
The good news is that we have all summer to dissect win totals and convince ourselves somebody not named Caleb Williams will win the Heisman. For today, let’s just dip our toes into the Week 1 odds. They are fresh and new, and there are a few interesting games that immediately caught my eye. It’s way too soon for me to start firing on games scheduled in September, but it’s good to have a handful of games on the radar to track line movement.
Colorado +19 at TCU (O/U 60.5)
All eyes will be on the Deion Sanders show, and we all keep watching to see how bad it’s going to be in Colorado. Despite my pessimism, the Buffaloes might be a sneaky bet-early team. They face a vulnerable favorite in TCU, which attempts to regroup after its fairytale season without OC Garrett Riley, QB Max Duggan, RB Kendre Miller and WR Quentin Johnston. Secondly, hope in Boulder will be at an all-time high in Week 1. The negative implications of the massive roster overhaul will likely show up late in the season, when the Buffaloes have to count on depth. The concerns of how Sanders handles the inevitable weekly losses that come with a rebuild won’t come into play this early. I will need to get past 21 points, but if I can grab three touchdowns with the Buffaloes, I might bite.
LSU -3 at Florida State (O/U 56.5)
The mayhem that this matchup brought us in Week 1 last season was just a precursor of things to come last season. One year removed, and both teams enter 2023 much stronger. The hype around Florida State is massive with QB Jordan Travis perched right behind Caleb WIlliams in the Heisman odds at +1000, and his No.1 WR, Johnny Wilson, is ready to run it back after an 897-yard season. LSU also brings back Jayden Daniels, and more importantly, five of six players on the offensive line. The Tigers look like the rightful road favorite with a big advantage in the trenches. Mekhi Wingo and Maason Smith are a dominant pair on a deep interior defensive line. I will probably be looking at LSU to see if this one slides under the key number.
Clemson -12 at Duke (O/U 57.5)
Clemson’s offense was a meme in 2022, finishing 66th in explosive plays. Dabo Swinney may have floundered in finding the solution during the season, but I give him a ton of credit for getting his guy. Enter Riley from TCU. Riley should be the perfect pairing for QB Cade Klubnik, bringing the Tigers’ passing game back to relevancy. The Tigers also get 80% of their offensive line back to protect their sophomore signal-caller, and a defense that should improve with elite linebacking corp. Duke was a big surprise, but I think Clemson comes out trying to bury a disappointing 2022 with a statement win in Week 1. Hopefully, this one stays under 14.
Nebraska +8 at Minnesota (O/U 47.5)
I’m really intrigued by Minnesota this season. The Gophers turn the offense over to “The Greek Rifle” Athan Kaliakmanis. They hit the portal, strengthening the depth at wide receiver with playmakers who can get chunk yards and take it to the house. The question remains whether the play-calling will be aggressive enough to truly stray from its three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust identity. I don’t think there is a better spot to dive in than Week 1 against the Cornhuskers in Matt Rhule’s debut. Rhule is the right man for the job, but the first years of his rebuild have been tough to watch. He started 1-11 (Baylor) and 2-10 (Temple) in his last two stops. I wouldn’t expect instant results in Lincoln. I wouldn’t mind seeing Nebraska’s new coach catching some steam to bring down the number under 7.
Coastal Carolina +17 at UCLA (O/U 64.5)
Tim Beck should do a solid job taking over for former coach Jamey Chadwell, as the Chanticleers will remain in the hunt for the Sun Belt title with QB Grayson McCall returning. That being said, UCLA is going to run all over this defense. Chip Kelly brought in Ball State’s Carson Steele, who rushed for over 1,500 yards and is fully capable of replacing Zach Charbonnet. With a freshman quarterback likely under center for UCLA, I think Chip keeps his foot on the pedal and pounds this poor Sun Belt defense into submission. I will be looking to lay the points when the season approaches.
