How many SEC teams are actually in playoff contention?
Just three teams in the league have two or fewer losses after a Week 13 that saw Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M all lose on the road. Does that mean the SEC is down to just three playoff possibilities? Or does a three-loss team have a shot?
We wouldn’t write off the three-loss teams. Especially Texas A&M. The Aggies can get an automatic berth with a win over Texas and a win over Georgia in the SEC title game. And both Alabama and Ole Miss have wins over Georgia.
However, we think there will be just three SEC teams in the bracket in Tuesday’s set of College Football Playoff rankings. Here’s how we think the bracket will look after getting every team and seed exactly right last week.
First-round byes
1. Oregon (11-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Ducks were off in Week 13 and are the only undefeated team remaining at the top level of college football.
2. Texas (10-1, projected SEC champion)
Texas got a win over a Kentucky team that couldn’t make the most of any opportunities it had. Quinn Ewers suffered an ankle injury in the win but it’s minor and he should be good to go against A&M.
3. Miami (10-1, projected ACC champion)
Miami did what it needed to against Wake Forest. A win in Week 14 puts the Hurricanes in the ACC title game against SMU.
4. Boise State (10-1, projected Mountain West champion)
Ashton Jeanty eclipsed the 2,000-yard mark but also suffered what appeared to be a left ankle injury. Jeanty was able to return to the game, however, and Boise State survived Wyoming’s upset bid for a 17-13 win.
First-round games
No. 12 Arizona State (8-2, projected Big 12 champion) at No. 5 Ohio State (10-1, at-large)
The Sun Devils are in the best position of any team tied atop the Big 12. Arizona State has the tiebreaker advantage over everyone else and is in the Big 12 title game with a win over Arizona. The Sun Devils should also be the highest-ranked Big 12 team in the rankings on Tuesday night. Ohio State will stay at No. 2 in the rankings after its impressive win over Indiana, but it is stuck with the No. 5 seed at the moment. The Buckeyes will get a rematch with the Ducks for the Big Ten title with a win over Michigan.
No. 11 Indiana (10-1, at-large) at No. 6. Notre Dame (10-1, at-large)
The Hoosiers are the main beneficiary of the chaos in the SEC. Had Alabama and Ole Miss gotten wins, it’d be easy to see the committee dropping Indiana from the field this week. Instead, the Hoosiers have to feel really good about their chances. A win over Purdue should be enough for a playoff berth.
We think Notre Dame could jump ahead of Penn State in the rankings after an impressive win over previously undefeated Army. The Irish are a very complete team at the moment and have a nine-game win streak after their stunning Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois.
No. 10 SMU (10-1, at-large) at No. 7 Penn State (10-1, at-large)
SMU should find itself in the field for the first time after an easy win over Virginia that clinched a spot in the ACC title game. SMU is also on a nine-game win streak since its Week 2 loss to BYU. Here’s a situation to ponder: Does SMU get in as an at-large team at 11-2 if it loses to Miami in the ACC title game?
The Nittany Lions got out of Minnesota with a 26-25 win. Like Indiana, Penn State will feel great about its playoff chances with a win over Maryland in the regular-season finale.
No. 9 Tennessee (9-2, at-large) at No. 8 Georgia (9-2, at-large)
Don’t start thinking about a rematch between the Vols and Bulldogs just yet. This is probably going to change. Georgia has clinched a spot in the SEC title game and will play either Texas or Texas A&M on Dec. 7. There are still a range of seeds for the Bulldogs.
Tennessee was the biggest playoff beneficiary of the losses in the SEC. After falling outside the bracket a week ago, the Vols are back in and should make the playoff with a win over Vanderbilt.
