The grand reopening of Notre Dame cathedral in Paris on Saturday was expected to be attended by around 50 heads of state and government. Joe Biden was not there to admire the magnificent splendour of the 850-year-old place of worship. But Donald Trump was.
The role reversal neatly symbolises how power is draining from one man to the other. Biden, now a lame duck, appears to be in decline both physically and politically, fading from America’s national stage and tarnishing his legacy with a pardon for his errant son.
Trump, however, is already dominating the Washington agenda more than 40 days before he takes the oath of office. He has grabbed attention with incendiary cabinet selections and policy pronouncements. He has begun flexing his muscles with world leaders. To many Americans, it feels like he is president again already.
“Biden’s presidency is ending with a series of whimpers rather than a bang and it feels like he’s shrinking into irrelevance as Trump is asserting himself,” said Charlie Sykes, a conservative author and broadcaster. “If you’re a foreign leader, you may talk to Biden out of politeness but you’re going to listen to Trump out of naked self-interest.”
Traditionally, the US has only one president at a time in both practice and spirit. But since defeating Biden’s vice-president, Kamala Harris, in last month’s election, Trump has effectively set up a shadow presidency at Mar-a-Lago, his club in Florida long dubbed his “winter White House”.
He’s already engaging with foreign leaders. His threat of 25% tariffs – taxes on foreign imports – led Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau to rush to Mar-a-Lago with a promise of increased border-security measures. Trump also said Mexico had agreed to close its border, a claim contradicted by the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum.
Just as in his first term, Trump can shape affairs and move markets with a single social media post. He sent shares of US Steel down by writing on Truth Social that he would block its proposed acquisition by Japanese-owned Nippon Steel.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for national security adviser, has credited Trump with bringing Israel and Lebanon to the negotiating table, although some political analysts have said there is no evidence that Trump had any direct involvement. The president-elect vowed “ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East” if Gaza hostages were not released before his inauguration.
Meanwhile, he is capitalising on the strong stock market, claiming it as a victory for his policies, and taking credit for the the reversal of diversity, equality and inclusion (DEI) initiatives at companies such as Walmart.
On Monday, the Trump transition team issued a press release headlined: “Promises Kept – And President Trump Hasn’t Even Been Inaugurated Yet.” It argued that Trump, who still has no official powers, is already securing the border, working towards international peace, propelling economic growth and dismantling “divisive, unchecked DEI”.
Critics point out that economic indicators – including the stock market – have been trending in the right direction for a long time, while recent dramas in South Korea, Syria and Ukraine cast doubt on the notion that Trump’s “peace through strength” mantra is already paying dividends.
Even so, Trump and his team are once again proving they can sell a narrative that suits them. Reed Galen, president of JoinTheUnion.us, a pro-democracy coalition, said: “It’s a combination of Trumpian bravado, further or final dismantling of whatever processes we took for granted for too long and their instinctual and maybe even unconscious ability to occupy a vacuum when they feel one.”
He added: “If Biden’s going to spend most of his time overseas and do very little in the way of pushing back on this stuff, they’re going to take all the ground that’s ceded to them. Call it Maga, call it the 21st-century Republican party – if they see an opportunity, they take it.
“They don’t worry about the outcome. They don’t worry about the consequences. They don’t worry about somebody saying, you can’t do that, you shouldn’t do that. They’re like, we’re going to go do it and good luck trying to stop us. Clearly, it spooked Trudeau enough to go flying to Mar-a-Lago.”
In theory, Trump’s conversations with world leaders could violate the Logan Act, a federal statute prohibiting unauthorised private diplomacy with foreign nations. But only one person has ever been indicted for breaching it – that was in 1803 and did not lead to a prosecution. Legal experts do not expect Trump to fall foul of it now.
His actions do represent a break from past norms, however. Presidents-elect tend to maintain a respectful distance from the incumbent until it is their turn to occupy the White House. Franklin Roosevelt firmly rebuffed an invitation from the man he beat, Herbert Hoover, to take part a joint effort to pull the economy out of the Great Depression.
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said: “I’m old enough to remember when presidents-elect disappeared. I don’t think we saw Kennedy three times except going to church back in the late fall of 1960.
“Reagan appeared once in public after the election; they caught him going into a store for supplies or something. That’s what was expected. You didn’t interfere with your predecessor because he was still president.”
But perception of Trump’s authority has been accelerated by Biden’s shrivelling influence. This week, Biden became the first sitting US president to visit Angola and the first since Barack Obama in 2015 to set foot in Africa. His speech received little coverage and has fewer than 2,000 views on the White House’s official YouTube channel.
Biden, 82, is also facing fierce criticism from fellow Democrats for pardoning his son Hunter over federal crimes after previously pledging that he would not. Some regard it as a vote of no confidence in the justice system that Biden vowed to protect – and a gift to Trump in his ongoing efforts to undermine democratic institutions.
The Axios website reported: “A Biden friend said the president seems older by the day — slower in walk, more halting in talk. To some Biden loyalists, his decline is a sad metaphor for his presidency: He started strong but will finish diminished.”
By contrast, Trump, 78, is once again dominating headlines with a frenzy of round-the-clock social media posts and controversies. One cabinet pick had to withdraw due to sexual misconduct allegations; another is teetering because of claims he assaulted women and abused alcohol; a third presents grave concerns to intelligence experts because of her willingness to believe conspiracy theories. The growing prominence of Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, also has nerves jangling.
For Washington, there is a sense that the circus is back in town – or perhaps it never went away. Sykes, author of How the Right Lost Its Mind, said: “It feels like a continuation of the last four years where, even though Joe Biden has been the president, Donald Trump has felt like he was a politically dominating force for so long.
“Unfortunately, when people look back on the Biden presidency, they’re going to comment on how low-profile and low-key Biden was in comparison to the man that he defeated. I’m not sure that there’s any historical parallel for that. The Trump show has been ongoing and sucking up all the oxygen for nearly a decade now.”
